John Healey’s surprise appointment as Chancellor does nothing to neutralise the danger posed by new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s own instincts on borrowing and spending, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations, cautioning investors against mistaking a calmer morning for a change in direction.
Nigel Green of deVere Group’s warning comes as gilt yields eased back and sterling ticked higher on Healey’s appointment, after Burnham’s first comments as Prime Minister had driven 10-year yields up eight basis points to 5.049% and pushed 30-year borrowing costs to their highest since late May.
He says: “Investors are betting on the wrong person again.
“Healey does not set the direction of this government, Burnham does, and Burnham is a Prime Minister who spooked the bond market within 24 hours of taking office by promising a ‘new economic model’ and telling reporters he would use ‘any flexibility’ he could find within the fiscal rules.
“None of that changes because a more familiar face now sits in the Treasury.”
Nigel Green warns that Healey’s own record makes him an unlikely check on Burnham’s appetite for spending.
“This is a Chancellor whose defining trait in government was asking the Treasury for more money as Defence Secretary, right up until he resigned from Keir Starmer’s administration.
“Now the man who spent years pushing to loosen the purse strings is the one holding them.
“Healey might manage how the flexibility gets used. He was never appointed to prevent it, because preventing it was never the plan.”
He continues: “Healey’s appointment is not evidence the pressure to spend has gone away. It is evidence Burnham knows the market needed reassurance while he works out how far he can push.”
He adds: “This is, arguably, the moment to prepare, not relax. Gilt yields sitting at five-week lows and a marginal rally in sterling reflect relief that Monday’s worst case did not repeat itself, nothing more.
“Reviewing exposure to UK gilts, diversifying sterling holdings and stress-testing portfolios against a renewed sell-off should be happening now, while conditions are calm, rather than after an autumn statement confirms the debt load has grown again.
“Confidence built on one appointment and one quiet trading session is the most fragile kind there is.”
Nigel Green concludes: “Markets have rewarded, so far, a name and a pause, not a policy, and Britain has made that mistake before.
“Until Burnham rules out further borrowing dressed up as ‘flexibility’, no Chancellor, however experienced or well regarded, can protect this country, or investors’ portfolios, from a Prime Minister whose first instinct in office was to reach for more room to spend.”