The US Dollar inched up on Wednesday, recovering from a nearly week-long low after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed caution over further easing, even as markets still anticipate two additional rate cuts this year.
Meanwhile, the Euro held steady despite data showing a surprising decline in German business sentiment for September, with the Ifo business climate index falling to 87.7 from 88.9 in August amid a subdued economic outlook.
At the time of writing, the single currency was down 0.4% at $1.177 but remained fairly stable against other currencies such as the British Pound and Swiss Franc, reflecting continued investor demand for the Dollar.
Whereas Sterling fell 0.3% to $1.34820, Reuters news agency reports.
Market focus is now on expectations for quarter-point rate cuts at the remaining two Fed meetings this year, and another in the first quarter of 2026, consistent with the central bank’s guidance following last week’s meeting.
This week, US economic data will draw attention, especially Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a crucial factor in gauging expectations for the Fed’s upcoming policy decisions.
The risks for the Dollar are viewed as tilted to the downside ahead of this week’s core PCE release, say analysts, with a 0.2% month-on-month reading likely reinforcing expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year, unless the geopolitical situation in Europe worsens.
Dollar movements remained limited, as Powell essentially repeated the cautious stance he expressed last week.
At that point, the Dollar recovered from its lowest level since early 2022 after the Fed’s policy announcement and Powell’s news conference, which were less dovish than the market had anticipated following a recent significant slowdown in the labour market.
The Dollar index, tracking the currency against six major peers, rose 0.35% on Wednesday to 97.575, recovering some ground after two consecutive losses that had pushed it to its lowest level since Thursday at 97.198 overnight.
Powell recognised that there are no risk-free policy choices, cautioning that easing too soon could lock in inflation, while overly tight monetary measures might unnecessarily harm employment opportunities.
Furthermore, the Dollar rose 0.29% against the Yen, reaching 148.065.