The dollar and stocks pushed to record highs on Thursday as investors dismissed the US government shutdown and signs of labour market weakness.
All three major US indexes closed at record highs, with Nvidia hitting a fresh all-time high and Intel surging 50% in the past month.
The gains came despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warning that economic growth could “take a hit” if the shutdown continues, and data showing year-to-date hiring down 58% from 2023, its lowest since 2009.
Nigel Green, chief executive of global financial advisory giant deVere Group, says: “Markets are telling us they’re far more focused on earnings strength, policy direction, and liquidity than on Washington’s deadlock.
“Shutdowns tend to be temporary noise, not structural shocks. Investors are looking through it.”
The political backdrop has had little impact on the dollar either. The greenback edged higher against risk-sensitive currencies, underlining how investors are positioning around fundamentals rather than headlines.
“Historically, shutdowns have caused volatility in bonds and equities, but the effects have been fleeting, and markets are once again treating it as a passing disruption,” notes the deVere chief executive.
Labour market data is adding nuance but not shaking confidence. A recent report shows new hiring slumping to its lowest level since the financial crisis. Yet a new set of indicators compiled by the Chicago Fed places unemployment at 4.34%, in line with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s description of a “low fire, low hire” economy.
Nigel Green explains: “The takeaway for investors is that job creation is slowing, but unemployment remains contained. This all signals an economy cooling without breaking, which bolsters the expectation that central banks will keep conditions supportive. Investors are positioning for that scenario.”
Corporate earnings remain the key driver. Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, continues to set records as investors bet on its dominance in AI. Intel, while still far below its 2021 highs, has delivered a 50% rally over the past month thanks to a series of successful tie-ups.
“These stock moves reinforce the belief that corporate performance is outweighing weak macro data.
“Tech leadership is driving the markets. These companies have become central to growth, and their earnings power is what keeps pulling investors in. As long as this narrative holds, equities are resilient,” he comments.
Momentum also matters. With benchmarks at record highs, investors are reluctant to step aside.
Internationally, investor flows reflect the same outlook. European equities have followed Wall Street upward, while Asian markets are drawing support from capital rotation into growth sectors.
Emerging market currencies are under pressure as the dollar strengthens, but equity markets in those regions continue to attract inflows from global funds seeking higher returns.
“Investors aren’t paralysed by Washington’s gridlock. They’re looking at the bigger picture, which includes liquidity, earnings, and positioning for 2026.
“Shutdowns will come and go. What matters is where the money is flowing, and right now it is clearly into equities,” says Nigel Green.
The key risk factors remain inflation surprises, geopolitical shocks, or a disorderly downturn in the labour market. But with unemployment steady and inflation trending lower, investors are treating the risks as manageable.
Nigel Green concludes: “The longer-term trend remains intact. Equity markets are scaling new peaks, the dollar is holding firm, and risk assets are in demand. “Until there’s a genuine break in earnings momentum or an external shock, it seems investors will continue to back this rally.”