Just as Wall Street was closing the books on any more 2025 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to uncertainty and lack of economic data, economists at JPMorgan are predicting a rate cut before the end of the year. This comes after tech markets took a hit earlier this month as investor confidence in AI profits waned. Possible FED cut confidence was bolstered as the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank supported a Dec cut.
The news of a FED cut, along with strengthening tech stocks led by Dell’s positive AI-server forecasts, has investors in a buying mood ahead of the Thanksgiving weekend. Wall Street boasts a 4th consecutive day of gains, with the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all up.
CME’s Fedwatch tool shows that financial markets are pricing in an 84.9% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points. Historically, air traffic is a good indication of consumer health. Ahead of the vacation weekend, the S&P 1500 Airlines Index rose 3% as air ticket sales rose.
Moving to the other side of the pond, analysts predict a UK Dec rate cut as well.
“We now expect the Bank of England to cut rates in December and then follow with three more reductions in 2025. The data now supports it, the fiscal picture allows it, and the growth outlook increasingly demands it.
The significance of the Budget lies less in dramatic tax changes and more in what it removes — policy uncertainty. With fiscal risks clearer, the Bank can refocus on the direction of inflation and growth, both of which point toward lower rates.” – Nigel Green
All-round consumer confidence and a Fed cut could lead to a stock market rally before the end of the year, which is favourable for markets and investors.
Apple is back on top after 14 years. The success of the new iPhone 17 has Apple replacing Samsung as the top smartphone maker for 2025 since 2011.
For many years, Apple has lagged behind Samsung in global market share, but the new iPhone 17 has returned Apple to the top of the industry. iPhone shipments for 2025 are projected to be 10% higher than last year, higher than Samsung’s shipment prediction.
Q4 sales of the iPhone 17 are expected to be the best in the company’s history. Apple expects to sell 243 million units in 2025, 3.3% more than Samsung’s expected 245 million. High sales are bolstered by the holiday season ahead, and many iPhone Christmas gifts are expected under the tree this year.
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