The Indian Rupee remained largely subdued on Friday and was heading for a weekly loss, although the decline was limited by repeated Dollar-selling interventions from the central bank amid heightened tensions in the Middle East.
The Rupee was little changed at 95.3975 per Dollar, trading within a tight range as investors monitored oil prices. Traders also noted Dollar sales by state-run banks, which were widely believed to have been carried out on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India.
So far this week, the currency has moved within a range of less than 30 paise, marking its narrowest weekly trading band since February.
Concerns over the conflict have kept demand for Dollars among importers elevated, with oil refiners particularly eager to buy the greenback whenever the Dollar-Rupee exchange rate dips, according to a private bank trader.
Oil prices edged higher after the United States threatened to impose an indefinite naval blockade on Iran, reigniting fears of disruptions to crude supplies. India is especially exposed to such shocks, given that it imports around 90% of its oil.
The 95.00-95.10 area continues to provide important support for USD/INR. After breaking above 95.30 earlier this week, the pair remains positioned for a potential move towards 95.80, with 96.20 also in sight, Reuters news agency reports.
Moreover, regional currencies and equities were mixed, while the Dollar index was little changed, hovering just below the 100 level.
Data released on Thursday showed US producer prices were unchanged in July, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may be less likely to raise interest rates in September. LSEG data now puts the probability of a September hike at around 35%.
With CPI still running above the Fed’s 2% target, markets will be watching closely to gauge the central bank’s commitment to containing inflation, particularly if price pressures remain persistent in the months ahead.
Interest rate expectations may also remain a key influence on Dollar-Rupee forward premiums. On Friday, the one-year forward implied yield fell 2 basis points to 2.71%, its lowest level since early July.