USD holds ground amid geopolitical tension; Aussie shakes after RBA move

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The US Dollar strengthened on Tuesday as the escalating conflict in the Middle East dampened investor confidence, while the Australian Dollar fluctuated in volatile trading after the central bank chief struck a hawkish tone following a narrow decision to raise interest rates.

Meanwhile, the Euro slipped 0.23% to $1.1479, edging back toward the more than seven-month low reached on Monday. Sterling also declined, falling 0.3% to $1.3279.

The Dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major peers, climbed 0.19% to 100.05, extending its gains to roughly 2.5% since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran erupted in late February, Reuters reports.

Fighting has continued unabated into its third week, with the crucial Strait of Hormuz largely shut. Allies of President Donald Trump declined his request to help reopen the passage, adding to rising energy prices and intensifying inflation concerns.

A spike in oil prices has led to a swift reassessment of interest rate expectations worldwide, boosting the US Dollar against most currencies as investors flock to safe-haven assets.

In Australia, as anticipated, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1% amid a resurgence in inflation, but the unexpectedly close vote initially pushed the Australian Dollar down to $0.7050, before it recovered slightly to $0.7057.

The board was split five to four in favour of the hike, marking the tightest decision since the RBA began publishing vote counts last year.

The central bank stated that there is a “material risk” inflation could stay above target longer than expected, noting that ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East may further drive both global and domestic inflation pressures.

“The five-to-four split vote decision itself probably did not out-hawk the market because the market was already quite hawkish,” which triggered knee-jerk weakness in the currency, stated Frances Cheung, head of FX and rates strategy at OCBC.

The RBA opens a week of eight central bank meetings that investors will closely watch for insights into how policymakers view the war’s effects on inflation and economic growth.

Most major central banks, such as the ⁠US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank, are anticipated to maintain their current policies, with attention focusing on officials’ remarks.

The Japanese Yen slipped to 159.40 per Dollar, approaching the key 160 mark, despite verbal cautions from Japanese authorities on Tuesday.

Analysts believe that the threshold for currency intervention will be higher than before due to rising oil prices.

In March, the Yen has fallen over 2% against the Dollar.

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